Unlocking Suriname’s Future: Gran Morgu Field Production, Depletion, and Revenue Modelling (2028-2048)

Introduction:**

Imagine a future where Suriname stands at the forefront of global hydrocarbon production, driven by the untapped potential of the Gran Morgu Field. Located within the Golden Lane—a geological region spanning the Stabroek Block in Guyana and extending to Blocks 58 and 52 in Suriname—this field promises to transform the nation’s economic landscape. This study delves into the production, depletion, and revenue generation of the Gran Morgu Field from 2028 to 2048, using the Liza-1 development as a geological analog. Our findings reveal strategic insights crucial for Suriname’s macroeconomic planning and sustainable development.

Significance of the Gran Morgu Field:

The Gran Morgu Field is poised to become a cornerstone of Suriname’s hydrocarbon industry, with recoverable reserves estimated at 750 million barrels of high-quality, light, sweet crude oil. Comparable to the prolific Liza-1 field developed by ExxonMobil, Gran Morgu’s potential underscores its significance in regional energy dynamics. Understanding its production and depletion trajectories is vital for optimizing resource management and revenue generation.

Methodology:

• Geological Analog: The Liza-1 field was chosen as a geological analog due to its similar characteristics and proximity, providing a reliable basis for modelling.
• Data Sources: The study utilized published data on Liza-1, complemented by international analog fields and Suriname-specific data. Recoverable reserves were a fundamental input, shaping the modelling outcomes.
• Scenarios:
• Production Scenarios: Three scenarios were developed, each targeting a plateau production of 220,000 barrels per day:
  • Minimum Scenario: Conservative estimates considering lower production capacities and reserves.
  • Average Scenario: Balanced projections based on median production and depletion rates.
  • Maximum Scenario: Optimistic forecasts assuming higher production efficiencies and reserve availability.
• Oil Price Scenarios: Three oil price scenarios were modelled to assess revenue generation:
  • Lowest Price Scenario: $60 USD/BBL, highlighting the need for prudent fiscal management.
• • Average Price Scenario: $70 USD/BBL, supporting strategic investments and policy planning.
• • Highest Price Scenario: $90 USD/BBL, enabling significant infrastructure investments and economic diversification.
  These scenarios were analyzed using advanced modelling techniques to provide a comprehensive view of potential outcomes, ensuring transparency and reliability.

Results:

The modelled scenarios reveal distinct paths for the Gran Morgu Field’s production, depletion, and revenue generation:

• Production and Depletion:
• Minimum Scenario: Gradual production decline post-2035, with 60% of reserves depleted by 2048.
• Average Scenario: Sustained plateau production until 2038, with 75% of reserves depleted by 2048.
• Maximum Scenario: Extended plateau production until 2042, with over 90% of reserves depleted by 2048.
• Revenue Generation:
• Varies significantly across oil price scenarios, emphasizing the importance of strategic fiscal planning.

Implications for Local Communities and Environment:

The development of the Gran Morgu Field presents opportunities and challenges for local communities and the environment.

Strategic planning must prioritize sustainable practices, community engagement, and environmental stewardship to mitigate adverse impacts and ensure long-term benefits.

Conclusion:

Understanding the dynamics of the Gran Morgu Field is crucial for Suriname’s economic future.

The modelled scenarios highlight the need for proactive policies to maximize operational efficiency and revenue generation. Stakeholders must prioritize these insights for informed decision-making, recognizing that a full petroleum cycle can span up to 100 years.

By doing so, Suriname can leverage the Gran Morgu Field to drive sustainable economic growth and development.

Visuals:

Incorporated graph illustrates the modelled scenarios and is intended to enhance the reader’s comprehension.

Especially in Suriname, Switi Sranan, that has to preparing full speed for most exciting and gradually more prosperous new times ahead.

Switi Sranan, the beloved, green country of my grandparents, parents and part of the lovely extended family, that stayed and still live there throughout all the difficult times, never ever opted to become part of the diaspora.

As well as those that have happily returned from abroad after finishing their university studies, to serve their native and beloved switi Sranan, country.

These essays and blogs that I publish, to whom it may be of interest and use, are intended to be a contribution to Suriname, via my website.

Gran tanji, odi odi, tan bun.

Kind regards.

Marcel Chin-A-Lien

Petroleum and Energy Advisor

48 Years of Global, in-depth expertise, knowhow and insights.

That have generated transformative, multi billion giant fields discoveries, iconic first capitalistic new ventures in the USSR, bid rounds, added value and long term cash flow generating offshore exploration and production activities on Dutch North Sea, M&A, PSC designs, Contract negotiations.

Combined with a cross & trans discipline background of 4 petroleum post grad degrees, that fuse technical, business, commercial and management disciplines, accompanied by fluency in 7 languages in a variety of geographical, socio-cultural and business landscapes. 

“ Exploration & Production integrated with Business & Commercial Development and Critical Insights “

Drs – Petroleum Geology
Engineering Geologist – Petroleum Geology

Executive MBA International Business – Petroleum – M&A
MSc International Management – Petroleum

Energy Negotiator Association of International Negotiators (AIEN)

Certified Petroleum Geologist # 5201 – American Association Petroleum Geologists – Gold standard Certification
Chartered European Geologist # 92    – European Federation of Geologists – Gold standard Certification

Cambridge Award  “ 2000 Outstanding Scientists of the 20th Century ”, UK – Gold standard Award
Paris Awards  “ Innovative New Business Projects “, GDF-Suez, France – Two Gold standard Awards, Paris, 2003.

Public Profile: nl.linkedin.com/pub/marcel-chin-a-lien/9/a73/547/

For Advisory Services contact:

Email: marcelchinalien@gmail.com