Transformational Oil & Gas Potential of Petronas’ Block 52 in Suriname’s Golden Lane

The Golden Future: Suriname’s Offshore Block 52 and Its Transformational Petroleum Potential

Introduction: A New Era for Suriname’s Offshore Oil Industry

Suriname stands at the precipice of transformational change. The enormous potential of its offshore resources, is supported by the already some 12 billion barrels reserves discovered in nearby Stabroek Block, Guyana. Also supported by rigorous scientific assessments of generated and yet-to-be-discovered petroleum volumes that I have made and presented in recently in essays on this website and on LinkedIn. This positions the nation for an extraordinary future. The Guyana-Suriname Basin, particularly the area I designated already in 2008 as the “Golden Lane”, even before the first Liza-1 discovery in 2015, has emerged as one of the world’s most promising frontier petroleum provinces.

As an experienced petroleum explorer and commercial developer since 1977, I see a positive outlook for Suriname’s impending oil boom. The nation’s hydrocarbon prosperity cycle is set to extend from 2025 to at least 2125, aligning with the classical timeline of a full exploration and production cycle in a high-potential, virgin basin.

Field Block 52: Decline Curve Analysis and Long-Term Production Outlook

My Decline Curve Analysis (DCA; Arps’ Oil Production Decline Curve) offers valuable insights into the probable production And related revenue trajectory of Block 52, one of Suriname’s most promising offshore fields. As the license is at an incipient stage of exploration, this DCA represents a conceptual model for the present day situation. I expect reserve number to increase. My own petroleum generation and trapping modelling of this area, indicates that some 15+ billion BOE were generated, in this area. Without counting the extra influx of petroleum from, what I myself have denominated, the “ Greater Suriname Kitchen “, therefore with the potential to double in the near future.

The image below, titled “Field Block 52 – DCA Production Profiles (2030-2055),” visually represents projected oil production decline scenarios in the Golden Lane Area.

Key Insights from the Decline Curve Analysis (DCA)

The chart models three different decline scenarios for Block 52, illustrating how long-term production varies depending on reservoir performance:

   •   Minimum Decline (blue dashed line, D_i = 10%)

   •   Average Decline (orange solid line, D_i = 15%)

   •   Maximum Decline (green dotted line, D_i = 20%)

Additional details:

   •   The y-axis represents production rates (in thousands of barrels per day, bbl/day), ranging from 10,000 to 120,000.

   •   The x-axis spans from 2030 to 2055.

   •   All scenarios begin at approximately 120,000 bbl/day in 2030 but diverge over time, highlighting the significant impact of decline rate assumptions.

   •   The total reserve base anno 2025 is estimated and assumed at some 500 MMBOE (million barrels of oil equivalent).

   •   The analysis incorporates three mathematical decline models:

      •   Harmonic (blue)

      •   Hyperbolic (red)

      •   Exponential (green)

This DCA was developed by myself, Marcel Chin-A-Lien, Petroleum & Energy Advisor, on March 10, 2025. The results underscore the importance of robust field management strategies to optimize long-term recovery and economic value from Block 52.

Block 52: PETRONAS’s Crown Jewel in the Golden Lane

PETRONAS’s strategic investments in Block 52 have already yielded significant discoveries, reinforcing the basin’s world-class hydrocarbon potential. This block stands as a testament to Suriname’s offshore promise, with recent exploration successes setting the stage for large-scale development.

Landmark Discoveries in Block 52

1. Sloanea-1 (2020)

      •   A pivotal discovery proving also substantial non-associated natural gas volumes.

      •   Production testing exceeded initial expectations, confirming a working petroleum system with excellent reservoir properties.

2. Roystonea-1

      •   A strategic follow-up well that further validated hydrocarbon accumulations.

      •   Strengthened confidence in Block 52’s commercial viability.

3. Macadamia & Fusaea-1

      •   Expanded the known resource base, demonstrating multi-play potential.

      •   Reinforced PETRONAS’s strategic vision for this acreage.

Accelerating Development: The 2025 Drilling Campaign

PETRONAS is poised to maintain momentum with an ambitious 2025 drilling program, set to commence in June. This campaign includes:

   •   Two new exploration wells targeting additional high-potential prospects identified via advanced seismic interpretation and geological modeling.

   •   A comprehensive assessment of the Sloanea gas discovery, with Staatsolie confirming that results from the 2024 production test indicate exceptional flow rates and reservoir characteristics suitable for long-term production.

Geological Framework: Why Block 52 Excels

The exceptional hydrocarbon potential of Block 52 is rooted in key geological advantages:

1. Source Rock Development

      •   Late Cretaceous source rocks reached optimal thermal maturity, generating significant oil and gas volumes.

2. Reservoir Quality

      •   Upper Cretaceous sandstones exhibit excellent porosity and permeability, ensuring high productivity.

3. Effective Trapping Mechanisms

      •   A combination of stratigraphic-structural traps provides multiple stacked play opportunities.

4. Hydrocarbon Preservation

      •   Regional geological stability has minimized reservoir degradation, maximizing recoverable resources.

Economic Implications: Beyond the Numbers

The development of Block 52 extends far beyond resource estimates—it represents a pivotal economic transformation for Suriname:

   •   Energy Security: Establishing Suriname as a net energy exporter and regional power.

   •   Economic Diversification: Leveraging oil wealth to develop non-petroleum sectors.

   •   Infrastructure Growth: Driving investments in ports, processing facilities, and transportation networks.

   •   Human Capital Development: Building a skilled workforce with expertise in petroleum engineering, geology, and project management.

The Path Forward: From Discovery to Full-Scale Production

As PETRONAS advances its exploration and appraisal activities in Block 52, I anticipate a structured transition to commercial development. The current assessment of Sloanea is a crucial step in defining the full-field development plan and production trajectory.

With each successful well, the resource base expands, accelerating the journey toward first production. The 2025 drilling campaign is expected to unlock additional reserves, solidifying Block 52’s status as a cornerstone of Suriname’s petroleum future.

Conclusion: A Golden Future Secured

Block 52 epitomizes the enormous promise of Suriname’s offshore resources. While recent discoveries are just the opening chapter, they signal the beginning of a multi-century petroleum boom—a transformation that will extend well into the next century.

As a geologist and business developer since 1977, with extensive experience analysing and developing global petroleum basins, I can confidently state that Suriname’s offshore basin ranks among the most promising just unveiling and yet to be fully developed. The scientific data, exploration results, and geological fundamentals all point toward an exceptional future.

The Golden Lane, which I identified in 2008, continues to shine ever brighter. With Block 52 emerging as a key driver of this transformation, Suriname is poised to join the ranks of major petroleum producers, harnessing its resource wealth to fuel long-term prosperity.

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